Kalmar vs Mjällby Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Kalmar vs Mjällby
Model pick: Mjällby (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.52
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kalmar | Mjällby |
|---|
| League position | #12 (14 pts) | #10 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1.9 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Kalmar shown at home, Mjällby shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kalmar — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Mjällby — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kalmar (home) | Mjällby (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-1 in 7 (1.7 / 0.9 goals per game) | 2-4-1 in 7 (1.9 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 48% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kalmar or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Mjällby or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Kalmar clean sheet | 22% |
| Mjällby clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mjällby is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Mjällby edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kalmar vs Mjällby — FAQ
Who will win Kalmar vs Mjällby?
Our statistical model makes Mjällby the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Kalmar 29%, draw 27%, Mjällby 45%.
Will both teams score in Kalmar vs Mjällby?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kalmar vs Mjällby?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Kalmar and 1.52 for Mjällby — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kalmar vs Mjällby?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Kalmar or draw is 53%.