Karlovy Vary vs Ujezd Prague Prediction & Preview
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 4 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Karlovy Vary vs Ujezd Prague
Model pick: Ujezd Prague (97%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.41 – 5.72
Total goals: 6.1
Over 2.5: 79%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Karlovy Vary | Ujezd Prague |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.5 | 3.0 / 1.0 |
*Karlovy Vary shown at home, Ujezd Prague shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Karlovy Vary — last 5
WWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Ujezd Prague — last 5
DW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Karlovy Vary (home) | Ujezd Prague (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.02
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 34%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.41 vs 5.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-5 (13%) |
| Double chance — Karlovy Vary or draw (1X) | 2% |
| Double chance — Ujezd Prague or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Karlovy Vary clean sheet | 0% |
| Ujezd Prague clean sheet | 66% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ujezd Prague is the model's most likely outcome at
97%. Despite playing away, Ujezd Prague edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 6.1, this shapes as an open game (79% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Karlovy Vary vs Ujezd Prague — FAQ
Who will win Karlovy Vary vs Ujezd Prague?
Our statistical model makes Ujezd Prague the most likely result at 97%. Full probabilities: Karlovy Vary 1%, draw 2%, Ujezd Prague 97%.
Will both teams score in Karlovy Vary vs Ujezd Prague?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Karlovy Vary vs Ujezd Prague?
Expected goals are 0.41 for Karlovy Vary and 5.72 for Ujezd Prague — about 6.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Karlovy Vary vs Ujezd Prague?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-5 (13%). Double chance for Karlovy Vary or draw is 2%.