Kasımpaşa vs Amed Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Kasımpaşa vs Amed
Model pick: Kasımpaşa (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kasımpaşa | Amed |
|---|
| League position | #8 (5 pts) | #5 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Kasımpaşa shown at home, Amed shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kasımpaşa — last 5
DWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Amed — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kasımpaşa (home) | Amed (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% |
| Top scorer | – | Mbaye Diagne (22) |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kasımpaşa or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Amed or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Kasımpaşa clean sheet | 27% |
| Amed clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kasımpaşa is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Kasımpaşa are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kasımpaşa vs Amed — FAQ
Who will win Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Our statistical model makes Kasımpaşa the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Kasımpaşa 41%, draw 28%, Amed 32%.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Kasımpaşa and 1.3 for Amed — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Kasımpaşa or draw is 63%.