Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor
Model pick: Trabzonspor (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.67
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kasımpaşa | Trabzonspor |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #1 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 1.8 |
*Kasımpaşa shown at home, Trabzonspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kasımpaşa — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Trabzonspor — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kasımpaşa (home) | Trabzonspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Ernest Muci (1) |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 1.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Kasımpaşa or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Trabzonspor or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Kasımpaşa clean sheet | 19% |
| Trabzonspor clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Trabzonspor is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Trabzonspor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor — FAQ
Who will win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model makes Trabzonspor the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Kasımpaşa 26%, draw 25%, Trabzonspor 49%.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Kasımpaşa and 1.67 for Trabzonspor — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Kasımpaşa or draw is 56%.