Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai
Model pick: Kauno Žalgiris (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.73 – 0.67
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kauno Žalgiris | Džiugas Telšiai |
|---|
| League position | #2 (39 pts) | #4 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 46% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Kauno Žalgiris shown at home, Džiugas Telšiai shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kauno Žalgiris — last 5
LDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Džiugas Telšiai — last 5
DWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kauno Žalgiris (home) | Džiugas Telšiai (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-4-3 in 13 (1.8 / 0.6 goals per game) | 4-5-3 in 12 (1.3 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.73 vs 0.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Kauno Žalgiris or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Džiugas Telšiai or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet | 51% |
| Džiugas Telšiai clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kauno Žalgiris is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Kauno Žalgiris are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai — FAQ
Who will win Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Our statistical model makes Kauno Žalgiris the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Kauno Žalgiris 59%, draw 25%, Džiugas Telšiai 16%.
Will both teams score in Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Expected goals are 1.73 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.67 for Džiugas Telšiai — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kauno Žalgiris vs Džiugas Telšiai?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Kauno Žalgiris or draw is 86%.