Kauno Žalgiris vs Sūduva Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Kauno Žalgiris vs Sūduva
Model pick: Kauno Žalgiris (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 0.87
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kauno Žalgiris | Sūduva |
|---|
| League position | #1 (34 pts) | #2 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Kauno Žalgiris shown at home, Sūduva shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kauno Žalgiris — last 5
DWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Sūduva — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kauno Žalgiris (home) | Sūduva (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.9 / 0.6 goals per game) | 2-4-3 in 9 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 58% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 0.87):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Kauno Žalgiris or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Sūduva or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet | 42% |
| Sūduva clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kauno Žalgiris is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Kauno Žalgiris are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kauno Žalgiris vs Sūduva — FAQ
Who will win Kauno Žalgiris vs Sūduva?
Our statistical model makes Kauno Žalgiris the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Kauno Žalgiris 48%, draw 28%, Sūduva 24%.
Will both teams score in Kauno Žalgiris vs Sūduva?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kauno Žalgiris vs Sūduva?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Kauno Žalgiris and 0.87 for Sūduva — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kauno Žalgiris vs Sūduva?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Kauno Žalgiris or draw is 78%.