Kayserispor vs Sivasspor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor
Model pick: Kayserispor (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.18 – 0.07
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 23%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kayserispor | Sivasspor |
|---|
| League position | #17 (30 pts) | #10 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.9 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Kayserispor shown at home, Sivasspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kayserispor — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Sivasspor — last 5
LLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kayserispor (home) | Sivasspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-8 in 17 (0.9 / 1.9 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% |
| Top scorer | – | Valon Ethemi (6) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.18 vs 0.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (25%) |
| Double chance — Kayserispor or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Sivasspor or draw (X2) | 13% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Kayserispor clean sheet | 93% |
| Sivasspor clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kayserispor is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Kayserispor are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kayserispor vs Sivasspor — FAQ
Who will win Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model makes Kayserispor the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Kayserispor 56%, draw 23%, Sivasspor 20%.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
The model gives a 23% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Expected goals are 2.18 for Kayserispor and 0.07 for Sivasspor — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (25%). Double chance for Kayserispor or draw is 99%.