Keflavík vs ÍBV Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Keflavík vs ÍBV
Model pick: Keflavík (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Keflavík | ÍBV |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Keflavík shown at home, ÍBV shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Keflavík — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 19% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
ÍBV — last 5
DLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Keflavík (home) | ÍBV (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 19% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 69% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Keflavík or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — ÍBV or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Keflavík clean sheet | 32% |
| ÍBV clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Keflavík is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Keflavík are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Keflavík vs ÍBV — FAQ
Who will win Keflavík vs ÍBV?
Our statistical model makes Keflavík the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Keflavík 44%, draw 24%, ÍBV 32%.
Will both teams score in Keflavík vs ÍBV?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Keflavík vs ÍBV?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Keflavík and 1.15 for ÍBV — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Keflavík vs ÍBV?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Keflavík or draw is 73%.