Keflavík vs KA Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Keflavík vs KA
Model pick: Keflavík (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.64
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Keflavík | KA |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Keflavík shown at home, KA shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Keflavík — last 5
DDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 18% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
KA — last 5
WLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Keflavík (home) | KA (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 18% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 66% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.21
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.64 vs 1.64):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Keflavík or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — KA or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Keflavík clean sheet | 19% |
| KA clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Keflavík is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Keflavík are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Keflavík vs KA — FAQ
Who will win Keflavík vs KA?
Our statistical model makes Keflavík the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Keflavík 44%, draw 24%, KA 32%.
Will both teams score in Keflavík vs KA?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Keflavík vs KA?
Expected goals are 1.64 for Keflavík and 1.64 for KA — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Keflavík vs KA?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Keflavík or draw is 62%.