Keflavík vs Valur Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Keflavík vs Valur
Model pick: Valur (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.9
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Keflavík | Valur |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
*Keflavík shown at home, Valur shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Keflavík — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Valur — last 5
LWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Keflavík (home) | Valur (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 68% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 1.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Keflavík or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Valur or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Keflavík clean sheet | 15% |
| Valur clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Valur is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Valur edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Keflavík vs Valur — FAQ
Who will win Keflavík vs Valur?
Our statistical model makes Valur the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Keflavík 33%, draw 24%, Valur 44%.
Will both teams score in Keflavík vs Valur?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Keflavík vs Valur?
Expected goals are 1.57 for Keflavík and 1.9 for Valur — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Keflavík vs Valur?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Keflavík or draw is 54%.