Keith vs Buckie Thistle Prediction & Preview
Lowland League (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LOWLAND LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Keith vs Buckie Thistle
Model pick: Buckie Thistle (93%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.56 – 4.72
Total goals: 5.3
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Keith | Buckie Thistle |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 3.4 / 0.6 |
*Keith shown at home, Buckie Thistle shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Keith — last 5
LDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Buckie Thistle — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Keith (home) | Buckie Thistle (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
Lowland League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.71
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 69%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Lowland League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.56 vs 4.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-4 (11%) |
| Double chance — Keith or draw (1X) | 4% |
| Double chance — Buckie Thistle or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Keith clean sheet | 1% |
| Buckie Thistle clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Buckie Thistle is the model's most likely outcome at
93%. Despite playing away, Buckie Thistle edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.3, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Keith vs Buckie Thistle — FAQ
Who will win Keith vs Buckie Thistle?
Our statistical model makes Buckie Thistle the most likely result at 93%. Full probabilities: Keith 2%, draw 5%, Buckie Thistle 93%.
Will both teams score in Keith vs Buckie Thistle?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Keith vs Buckie Thistle?
Expected goals are 0.56 for Keith and 4.72 for Buckie Thistle — about 5.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Keith vs Buckie Thistle?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-4 (11%). Double chance for Keith or draw is 4%.