Kilmarnock vs Ayr United Prediction & Preview
League Cup (Scotland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE CUP (SCOTLAND)
Kilmarnock vs Ayr United
Model pick: Kilmarnock (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.6 – 0.54
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kilmarnock | Ayr United |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #2 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 0.4 |
*Kilmarnock shown at home, Ayr United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kilmarnock — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Ayr United — last 5
WWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kilmarnock (home) | Ayr United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Tyreece John-Jules (8) | – |
League Cup (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 61%
Draws: 0%
Away wins: 39%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 42%
Use these League Cup (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.6 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — Kilmarnock or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Ayr United or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 57% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 58% |
| Ayr United clean sheet | 55% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kilmarnock is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Kilmarnock are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kilmarnock vs Ayr United — FAQ
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Ayr United?
Our statistical model makes Kilmarnock the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Kilmarnock 51%, draw 29%, Ayr United 20%.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Ayr United?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kilmarnock vs Ayr United?
Expected goals are 0.6 for Kilmarnock and 0.54 for Ayr United — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kilmarnock vs Ayr United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (32%). Double chance for Kilmarnock or draw is 74%.