Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Model pick: Celtic (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.92 – 2.33
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kilmarnock | Celtic |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #21 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Kilmarnock shown at home, Celtic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kilmarnock — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Celtic — last 5
DLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kilmarnock (home) | Celtic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 68% |
| Top scorer | Tyreece John-Jules (8) | – |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.92 vs 2.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (11%) |
| Double chance — Kilmarnock or draw (1X) | 31% |
| Double chance — Celtic or draw (X2) | 87% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 10% |
| Celtic clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celtic is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Despite playing away, Celtic edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Kilmarnock vs Celtic — FAQ
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Celtic?
Our statistical model makes Celtic the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Kilmarnock 14%, draw 20%, Celtic 67%.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Celtic?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kilmarnock vs Celtic?
Expected goals are 0.92 for Kilmarnock and 2.33 for Celtic — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kilmarnock vs Celtic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (11%). Double chance for Kilmarnock or draw is 31%.