Kilmarnock vs Dundee United Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Kilmarnock vs Dundee United
Model pick: Kilmarnock (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kilmarnock | Dundee United |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #11 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 5.0 | 0.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 0.6 / 2.8 |
*Kilmarnock shown at home, Dundee United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kilmarnock — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Dundee United — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kilmarnock (home) | Dundee United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 5.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Tyreece John-Jules (8) | Zachary Sapsford (9) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kilmarnock or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Dundee United or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 31% |
| Dundee United clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kilmarnock is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Kilmarnock are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Kilmarnock vs Dundee United — FAQ
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Dundee United?
Our statistical model makes Kilmarnock the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Kilmarnock 39%, draw 27%, Dundee United 34%.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Dundee United?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kilmarnock vs Dundee United?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Kilmarnock and 1.18 for Dundee United — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kilmarnock vs Dundee United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Kilmarnock or draw is 70%.