Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren
Model pick: Kilmarnock (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kilmarnock | St. Mirren |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #3 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 5.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 2.6 / 1.8 |
*Kilmarnock shown at home, St. Mirren shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kilmarnock — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Mirren — last 5
WLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kilmarnock (home) | St. Mirren (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 5.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Tyreece John-Jules (8) | Mikael Mandron (4) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kilmarnock or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — St. Mirren or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 35% |
| St. Mirren clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kilmarnock is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Kilmarnock are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren — FAQ
Who will win Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?
Our statistical model makes Kilmarnock the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Kilmarnock 39%, draw 28%, St. Mirren 33%.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Kilmarnock and 1.06 for St. Mirren — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Kilmarnock or draw is 71%.