Kisvárda vs Debrecen Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Kisvárda vs Debrecen
Model pick: Debrecen (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.34
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kisvárda | Debrecen |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #9 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 2.5 | 2.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 2.6 |
*Kisvárda shown at home, Debrecen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kisvárda — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Debrecen — last 5
LLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kisvárda (home) | Debrecen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.5 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 56% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kisvárda or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Debrecen or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Kisvárda clean sheet | 26% |
| Debrecen clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Debrecen is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Debrecen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kisvárda vs Debrecen — FAQ
Who will win Kisvárda vs Debrecen?
Our statistical model makes Debrecen the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Kisvárda 35%, draw 27%, Debrecen 38%.
Will both teams score in Kisvárda vs Debrecen?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kisvárda vs Debrecen?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Kisvárda and 1.34 for Debrecen — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kisvárda vs Debrecen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Kisvárda or draw is 61%.