Kisvárda vs Újpest Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Kisvárda vs Újpest
Model pick: Kisvárda (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kisvárda | Újpest |
|---|
| League position | #3 (4 pts) | #5 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Kisvárda shown at home, Újpest shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kisvárda — last 5
WLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Újpest — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kisvárda (home) | Újpest (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 57% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kisvárda or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Újpest or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Kisvárda clean sheet | 30% |
| Újpest clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kisvárda is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Kisvárda are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kisvárda vs Újpest — FAQ
Who will win Kisvárda vs Újpest?
Our statistical model makes Kisvárda the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Kisvárda 41%, draw 27%, Újpest 32%.
Will both teams score in Kisvárda vs Újpest?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kisvárda vs Újpest?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Kisvárda and 1.2 for Újpest — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kisvárda vs Újpest?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Kisvárda or draw is 69%.