Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdansk Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdansk
Model pick: Kluczevia Stargard (93%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 18.12 – 4.33
Total goals: 22.5
Over 2.5: 12%
Both teams score: 17%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kluczevia Stargard | Gedania Gdansk |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 3.0 |
*Kluczevia Stargard shown at home, Gedania Gdansk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kluczevia Stargard — last 5
LWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Gedania Gdansk — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kluczevia Stargard (home) | Gedania Gdansk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (18.12 vs 4.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 8-4 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kluczevia Stargard or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Gedania Gdansk or draw (X2) | 10% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 93% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Kluczevia Stargard clean sheet | 1% |
| Gedania Gdansk clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kluczevia Stargard is the model's most likely outcome at
93%. Kluczevia Stargard are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (88% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdansk — FAQ
Who will win Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdansk?
Our statistical model makes Kluczevia Stargard the most likely result at 93%. Full probabilities: Kluczevia Stargard 93%, draw 4%, Gedania Gdansk 3%.
Will both teams score in Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdansk?
The model gives a 17% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdansk?
Expected goals are 18.12 for Kluczevia Stargard and 4.33 for Gedania Gdansk — about 22.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kluczevia Stargard vs Gedania Gdansk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 8-4 (12%). Double chance for Kluczevia Stargard or draw is 96%.