Kocaelispor vs Amed Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Kocaelispor vs Amed
Model pick: Amed (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.25 – 0.92
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 31%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kocaelispor | Amed |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #1 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Kocaelispor shown at home, Amed shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kocaelispor — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Amed — last 5
LDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kocaelispor (home) | Amed (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 39% |
| Top scorer | – | Mbaye Diagne (22) |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.25 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (31%) |
| Double chance — Kocaelispor or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Amed or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 61% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Kocaelispor clean sheet | 40% |
| Amed clean sheet | 78% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Amed is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Amed edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kocaelispor vs Amed — FAQ
Who will win Kocaelispor vs Amed?
Our statistical model makes Amed the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Kocaelispor 12%, draw 39%, Amed 49%.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Amed?
The model gives a 31% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kocaelispor vs Amed?
Expected goals are 0.25 for Kocaelispor and 0.92 for Amed — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kocaelispor vs Amed?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (31%). Double chance for Kocaelispor or draw is 48%.