Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro
Model pick: Kokand-1912 (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kokand-1912 | Buxoro |
|---|
| League position | #15 (15 pts) | #3 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Kokand-1912 shown at home, Buxoro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kokand-1912 — last 5
LLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Buxoro — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kokand-1912 (home) | Buxoro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.1 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Kokand-1912 or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Buxoro or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Kokand-1912 clean sheet | 38% |
| Buxoro clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kokand-1912 is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Kokand-1912 are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro — FAQ
Who will win Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro?
Our statistical model makes Kokand-1912 the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Kokand-1912 38%, draw 30%, Buxoro 32%.
Will both teams score in Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Kokand-1912 and 0.98 for Buxoro — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kokand-1912 vs Buxoro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Kokand-1912 or draw is 69%.