Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand
Model pick: Dinamo Samarqand (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kokand-1912 | Dinamo Samarqand |
|---|
| League position | #14 (19 pts) | #8 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Kokand-1912 shown at home, Dinamo Samarqand shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kokand-1912 — last 5
LDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Dinamo Samarqand — last 5
DLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kokand-1912 (home) | Dinamo Samarqand (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-0-5 in 9 (1.4 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kokand-1912 or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Dinamo Samarqand or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Kokand-1912 clean sheet | 25% |
| Dinamo Samarqand clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dinamo Samarqand is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Dinamo Samarqand edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand — FAQ
Who will win Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand?
Our statistical model makes Dinamo Samarqand the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Kokand-1912 28%, draw 28%, Dinamo Samarqand 44%.
Will both teams score in Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Kokand-1912 and 1.39 for Dinamo Samarqand — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Kokand-1912 or draw is 54%.