Kokand-1912 vs Lokomotiv Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Kokand-1912 vs Lokomotiv
Model pick: Lokomotiv (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.35
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kokand-1912 | Lokomotiv |
|---|
| League position | #15 (12 pts) | #7 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
*Kokand-1912 shown at home, Lokomotiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kokand-1912 — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiv — last 5
DDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kokand-1912 (home) | Lokomotiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-3 in 7 (0.9 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.4 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kokand-1912 or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Kokand-1912 clean sheet | 26% |
| Lokomotiv clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lokomotiv is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Lokomotiv edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kokand-1912 vs Lokomotiv — FAQ
Who will win Kokand-1912 vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model makes Lokomotiv the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Kokand-1912 32%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv 40%.
Will both teams score in Kokand-1912 vs Lokomotiv?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kokand-1912 vs Lokomotiv?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Kokand-1912 and 1.35 for Lokomotiv — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kokand-1912 vs Lokomotiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Kokand-1912 or draw is 58%.