Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 03, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon
Model pick: Surkhon (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 0.98
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kokand-1912 | Surkhon |
|---|
| League position | #15 (11 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Kokand-1912 shown at home, Surkhon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kokand-1912 — last 5
DWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Surkhon — last 5
DWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kokand-1912 (home) | Surkhon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-2 in 6 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 2-1-4 in 7 (1.0 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Kokand-1912 or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Kokand-1912 clean sheet | 38% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Surkhon is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Surkhon edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon — FAQ
Who will win Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon?
Our statistical model makes Surkhon the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Kokand-1912 32%, draw 32%, Surkhon 36%.
Will both teams score in Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon?
Expected goals are 0.89 for Kokand-1912 and 0.98 for Surkhon — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kokand-1912 vs Surkhon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (15%). Double chance for Kokand-1912 or draw is 64%.