Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Model pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg (85%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.5 – 3.36
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kolbuszowa Dolna | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Kolbuszowa Dolna shown at home, Siarka Tarnobrzeg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kolbuszowa Dolna — last 5
WWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kolbuszowa Dolna (home) | Siarka Tarnobrzeg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 51% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.25
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.5 vs 3.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kolbuszowa Dolna or draw (1X) | 10% |
| Double chance — Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw (X2) | 97% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 93% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Kolbuszowa Dolna clean sheet | 4% |
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet | 61% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Siarka Tarnobrzeg is the model's most likely outcome at
85%. Despite playing away, Siarka Tarnobrzeg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (65% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — FAQ
Who will win Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Our statistical model makes Siarka Tarnobrzeg the most likely result at 85%. Full probabilities: Kolbuszowa Dolna 4%, draw 10%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 85%.
Will both teams score in Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Expected goals are 0.5 for Kolbuszowa Dolna and 3.36 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (13%). Double chance for Kolbuszowa Dolna or draw is 10%.