Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Star Starachowice Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Star Starachowice
Model pick: Kolbuszowa Dolna (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.63 – 0.87
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kolbuszowa Dolna | Star Starachowice |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Kolbuszowa Dolna shown at home, Star Starachowice shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kolbuszowa Dolna — last 5
LLDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Star Starachowice — last 5
DLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 86% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kolbuszowa Dolna (home) | Star Starachowice (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 86% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.63 vs 0.87):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kolbuszowa Dolna or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Star Starachowice or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Kolbuszowa Dolna clean sheet | 42% |
| Star Starachowice clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kolbuszowa Dolna is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Kolbuszowa Dolna are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Star Starachowice — FAQ
Who will win Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Star Starachowice?
Our statistical model makes Kolbuszowa Dolna the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Kolbuszowa Dolna 52%, draw 26%, Star Starachowice 22%.
Will both teams score in Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Star Starachowice?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Star Starachowice?
Expected goals are 1.63 for Kolbuszowa Dolna and 0.87 for Star Starachowice — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Star Starachowice?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Kolbuszowa Dolna or draw is 80%.