Kongsvinger vs Haugesund Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Kongsvinger vs Haugesund
Model pick: Kongsvinger (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.76 – 3.47
Total goals: 6.2
Over 2.5: 84%
Both teams score: 75%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kongsvinger | Haugesund |
|---|
| League position | #3 (36 pts) | #1 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 1.6 | 3.2 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.6 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 2.4 |
*Kongsvinger shown at home, Haugesund shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kongsvinger — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Haugesund — last 5
LWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kongsvinger (home) | Haugesund (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-1 in 8 (3.0 / 1.6 goals per game) | 6-0-3 in 9 (3.2 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 53% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.76 vs 3.47):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-3 (5%) |
| Double chance — Kongsvinger or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Haugesund or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Kongsvinger clean sheet | 3% |
| Haugesund clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kongsvinger is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Kongsvinger are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.2, this shapes as an open game (84% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kongsvinger vs Haugesund — FAQ
Who will win Kongsvinger vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model makes Kongsvinger the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Kongsvinger 40%, draw 21%, Haugesund 38%.
Will both teams score in Kongsvinger vs Haugesund?
The model gives a 75% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kongsvinger vs Haugesund?
Expected goals are 2.76 for Kongsvinger and 3.47 for Haugesund — about 6.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kongsvinger vs Haugesund?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-3 (5%). Double chance for Kongsvinger or draw is 47%.