Kongsvinger vs Raufoss Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Kongsvinger vs Raufoss
Model pick: Kongsvinger (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.02 – 1.08
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kongsvinger | Raufoss |
|---|
| League position | #2 (43 pts) | #16 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.1 / 1.9 | 1.0 / 3.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 4.2 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 2.8 |
*Kongsvinger shown at home, Raufoss shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kongsvinger — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
Raufoss — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 11% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kongsvinger (home) | Raufoss (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-1 in 10 (3.1 / 1.9 goals per game) | 2-0-8 in 10 (1.0 / 3.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.11
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.02 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Kongsvinger or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Raufoss or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Kongsvinger clean sheet | 34% |
| Raufoss clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kongsvinger is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Kongsvinger are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kongsvinger vs Raufoss — FAQ
Who will win Kongsvinger vs Raufoss?
Our statistical model makes Kongsvinger the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Kongsvinger 55%, draw 23%, Raufoss 22%.
Will both teams score in Kongsvinger vs Raufoss?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kongsvinger vs Raufoss?
Expected goals are 2.02 for Kongsvinger and 1.08 for Raufoss — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kongsvinger vs Raufoss?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Kongsvinger or draw is 80%.