Koper vs Aluminij Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Koper vs Aluminij
Model pick: Koper (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.12 – 0.93
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Koper | Aluminij |
|---|
| League position | #2 (9 pts) | #3 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Koper shown at home, Aluminij shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Koper — last 5
LDLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Aluminij — last 5
LLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Koper (home) | Aluminij (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 57% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.12 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Koper or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Aluminij or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Koper clean sheet | 39% |
| Aluminij clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Koper is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Koper are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Koper vs Aluminij — FAQ
Who will win Koper vs Aluminij?
Our statistical model makes Koper the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Koper 60%, draw 22%, Aluminij 18%.
Will both teams score in Koper vs Aluminij?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Koper vs Aluminij?
Expected goals are 2.12 for Koper and 0.93 for Aluminij — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Koper vs Aluminij?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Koper or draw is 85%.