Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg
Model pick: Fortuna Regensburg (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.61
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kornburg | Fortuna Regensburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Kornburg shown at home, Fortuna Regensburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kornburg — last 5
DDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Fortuna Regensburg — last 5
LLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kornburg (home) | Fortuna Regensburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 67% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 1.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kornburg or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Fortuna Regensburg or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Kornburg clean sheet | 20% |
| Fortuna Regensburg clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortuna Regensburg is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Fortuna Regensburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg — FAQ
Who will win Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg?
Our statistical model makes Fortuna Regensburg the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Kornburg 27%, draw 26%, Fortuna Regensburg 47%.
Will both teams score in Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Kornburg and 1.61 for Fortuna Regensburg — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Kornburg or draw is 50%.