Korona Kielce vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Korona Kielce vs Górnik Zabrze
Model pick: Korona Kielce (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Korona Kielce | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|
| League position | #5 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Korona Kielce shown at home, Górnik Zabrze shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Korona Kielce — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Górnik Zabrze — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Korona Kielce (home) | Górnik Zabrze (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Dawid Blanik (6) | – |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Korona Kielce or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Górnik Zabrze or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Korona Kielce clean sheet | 33% |
| Górnik Zabrze clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Korona Kielce is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Korona Kielce are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Korona Kielce vs Górnik Zabrze — FAQ
Who will win Korona Kielce vs Górnik Zabrze?
Our statistical model makes Korona Kielce the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Korona Kielce 36%, draw 30%, Górnik Zabrze 34%.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Korona Kielce vs Górnik Zabrze?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Korona Kielce and 1.1 for Górnik Zabrze — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Korona Kielce vs Górnik Zabrze?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Korona Kielce or draw is 65%.