Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
Model pick: Korona Kielce (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Korona Kielce | Motor Lublin |
|---|
| League position | #10 (4 pts) | #13 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Korona Kielce shown at home, Motor Lublin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Korona Kielce — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Motor Lublin — last 5
WDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Korona Kielce (home) | Motor Lublin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Dawid Blanik (6) | Karol Czubak (15) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.53 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Korona Kielce or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Motor Lublin or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Korona Kielce clean sheet | 34% |
| Motor Lublin clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Korona Kielce is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Korona Kielce are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin — FAQ
Who will win Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model makes Korona Kielce the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Korona Kielce 47%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 27%.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
Expected goals are 1.53 for Korona Kielce and 1.09 for Motor Lublin — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Korona Kielce or draw is 73%.