Kotwica Kornik vs Baltyk Koszalin Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Kotwica Kornik vs Baltyk Koszalin
Model pick: Baltyk Koszalin (91%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.17 – 7.74
Total goals: 9.9
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kotwica Kornik | Baltyk Koszalin |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 1.67 |
*Kotwica Kornik shown at home, Baltyk Koszalin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kotwica Kornik — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Baltyk Koszalin — last 5
WLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kotwica Kornik (home) | Baltyk Koszalin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.17 vs 7.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-7 (6%) |
| Double chance — Kotwica Kornik or draw (1X) | 7% |
| Double chance — Baltyk Koszalin or draw (X2) | 97% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 96% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Kotwica Kornik clean sheet | 0% |
| Baltyk Koszalin clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Baltyk Koszalin is the model's most likely outcome at
91%. Despite playing away, Baltyk Koszalin edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 9.9, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kotwica Kornik vs Baltyk Koszalin — FAQ
Who will win Kotwica Kornik vs Baltyk Koszalin?
Our statistical model makes Baltyk Koszalin the most likely result at 91%. Full probabilities: Kotwica Kornik 4%, draw 5%, Baltyk Koszalin 91%.
Will both teams score in Kotwica Kornik vs Baltyk Koszalin?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kotwica Kornik vs Baltyk Koszalin?
Expected goals are 2.17 for Kotwica Kornik and 7.74 for Baltyk Koszalin — about 9.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kotwica Kornik vs Baltyk Koszalin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-7 (6%). Double chance for Kotwica Kornik or draw is 7%.