Kotwica Kornik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Kotwica Kornik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz
Model pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 2.76
Total goals: 4.4
Over 2.5: 70%
Both teams score: 65%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kotwica Kornik | Chemik Bydgoszcz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
*Kotwica Kornik shown at home, Chemik Bydgoszcz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kotwica Kornik — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Chemik Bydgoszcz — last 5
DDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kotwica Kornik (home) | Chemik Bydgoszcz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 65%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 2.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (8%) |
| Double chance — Kotwica Kornik or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Chemik Bydgoszcz or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Kotwica Kornik clean sheet | 6% |
| Chemik Bydgoszcz clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chemik Bydgoszcz is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Chemik Bydgoszcz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.4, this shapes as an open game (70% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kotwica Kornik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz — FAQ
Who will win Kotwica Kornik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?
Our statistical model makes Chemik Bydgoszcz the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Kotwica Kornik 24%, draw 20%, Chemik Bydgoszcz 57%.
Will both teams score in Kotwica Kornik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?
The model gives a 65% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kotwica Kornik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Kotwica Kornik and 2.76 for Chemik Bydgoszcz — about 4.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kotwica Kornik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (8%). Double chance for Kotwica Kornik or draw is 39%.