Krylya Sovetov vs Baltika Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Russia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (RUSSIA)
Krylya Sovetov vs Baltika
Model pick: Baltika (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.28
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Krylya Sovetov | Baltika |
|---|
| League position | #10 (2 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 3.0 / 0.8 |
*Krylya Sovetov shown at home, Baltika shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Krylya Sovetov — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Baltika — last 5
WWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Krylya Sovetov (home) | Baltika (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 41% |
Premier League (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Premier League (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Krylya Sovetov or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Baltika or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Krylya Sovetov clean sheet | 28% |
| Baltika clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Baltika is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Baltika edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Krylya Sovetov vs Baltika — FAQ
Who will win Krylya Sovetov vs Baltika?
Our statistical model makes Baltika the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Krylya Sovetov 30%, draw 30%, Baltika 40%.
Will both teams score in Krylya Sovetov vs Baltika?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Krylya Sovetov vs Baltika?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Krylya Sovetov and 1.28 for Baltika — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Krylya Sovetov vs Baltika?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Krylya Sovetov or draw is 56%.