Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Russia) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (RUSSIA)
Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala
Model pick: Krylya Sovetov (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Krylya Sovetov | Dynamo Makhachkala |
|---|
| League position | #14 (2 pts) | #5 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Krylya Sovetov shown at home, Dynamo Makhachkala shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Krylya Sovetov — last 5
LDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Dynamo Makhachkala — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 26% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Krylya Sovetov (home) | Dynamo Makhachkala (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 26% |
Premier League (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Premier League (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Krylya Sovetov or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Dynamo Makhachkala or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Krylya Sovetov clean sheet | 41% |
| Dynamo Makhachkala clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Krylya Sovetov is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Krylya Sovetov are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala — FAQ
Who will win Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model makes Krylya Sovetov the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Krylya Sovetov 39%, draw 31%, Dynamo Makhachkala 30%.
Will both teams score in Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Krylya Sovetov and 0.9 for Dynamo Makhachkala — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Krylya Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Krylya Sovetov or draw is 72%.