Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Russia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (RUSSIA)
Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar
Model pick: Krasnodar (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.99
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Krylya Sovetov | Krasnodar |
|---|
| League position | #11 (6 pts) | #1 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 0.2 |
*Krylya Sovetov shown at home, Krasnodar shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Krylya Sovetov — last 5
LLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Krasnodar — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Krylya Sovetov (home) | Krasnodar (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 3.0 goals per game) | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.0 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% |
Premier League (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Premier League (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 1.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Krylya Sovetov or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Krasnodar or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Krylya Sovetov clean sheet | 14% |
| Krasnodar clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Krasnodar is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Krasnodar edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar — FAQ
Who will win Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar?
Our statistical model makes Krasnodar the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Krylya Sovetov 20%, draw 23%, Krasnodar 57%.
Will both teams score in Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Krylya Sovetov and 1.99 for Krasnodar — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Krylya Sovetov or draw is 41%.