KuPS vs Mariehamn Prediction & Preview
Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VEIKKAUSLIIGA (FINLAND)
KuPS vs Mariehamn
Model pick: KuPS (69%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.24 – 0.61
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| KuPS | Mariehamn |
|---|
| League position | #21 (7 pts) | #12 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
*KuPS shown at home, Mariehamn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
KuPS — last 5
WDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Mariehamn — last 5
LDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | KuPS (home) | Mariehamn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-0 in 3 (1.3 / 0.7 goals per game) | 0-1-9 in 10 (0.4 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 44% |
Veikkausliiga (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Veikkausliiga (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.24 vs 0.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — KuPS or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Mariehamn or draw (X2) | 25% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| KuPS clean sheet | 54% |
| Mariehamn clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
KuPS is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. KuPS are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ KuPS vs Mariehamn — FAQ
Who will win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model makes KuPS the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: KuPS 69%, draw 20%, Mariehamn 11%.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Expected goals are 2.24 for KuPS and 0.61 for Mariehamn — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (15%). Double chance for KuPS or draw is 91%.