Kuressaare vs Laagri Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Kuressaare vs Laagri
Model pick: Laagri (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.46
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kuressaare | Laagri |
|---|
| League position | #9 (18 pts) | #8 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 3.8 / 1.2 |
*Kuressaare shown at home, Laagri shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kuressaare — last 5
WLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Laagri — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 5% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kuressaare (home) | Laagri (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-5 in 10 (0.9 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-0-6 in 9 (1.0 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 5% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 1.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kuressaare or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Laagri or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Kuressaare clean sheet | 23% |
| Laagri clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Laagri is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Laagri edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kuressaare vs Laagri — FAQ
Who will win Kuressaare vs Laagri?
Our statistical model makes Laagri the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Kuressaare 34%, draw 26%, Laagri 39%.
Will both teams score in Kuressaare vs Laagri?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kuressaare vs Laagri?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Kuressaare and 1.46 for Laagri — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kuressaare vs Laagri?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Kuressaare or draw is 60%.