Kuressaare vs Trans Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Kuressaare vs Trans
Model pick: Trans (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kuressaare | Trans |
|---|
| League position | #9 (25 pts) | #10 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.5 | 0.3 / 2.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Kuressaare shown at home, Trans shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kuressaare — last 5
WWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Trans — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kuressaare (home) | Trans (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-5 in 12 (1.2 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-10 in 12 (0.3 / 2.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Kuressaare or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Trans or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Kuressaare clean sheet | 26% |
| Trans clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Trans is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Trans edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kuressaare vs Trans — FAQ
Who will win Kuressaare vs Trans?
Our statistical model makes Trans the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Kuressaare 36%, draw 27%, Trans 37%.
Will both teams score in Kuressaare vs Trans?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kuressaare vs Trans?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Kuressaare and 1.33 for Trans — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kuressaare vs Trans?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Kuressaare or draw is 62%.