Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Kuressaare vs Vaprus
Model pick: Kuressaare (36%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Kuressaare | Vaprus |
|---|
| League position | #9 (24 pts) | #7 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Kuressaare shown at home, Vaprus shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Kuressaare — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Vaprus — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Kuressaare (home) | Vaprus (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-5 in 11 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) | 3-1-7 in 11 (1.0 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 67% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Kuressaare or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Vaprus or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Kuressaare clean sheet | 27% |
| Vaprus clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kuressaare is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Kuressaare are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Kuressaare vs Vaprus — FAQ
Who will win Kuressaare vs Vaprus?
Our statistical model makes Kuressaare the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Kuressaare 36%, draw 27%, Vaprus 36%.
Will both teams score in Kuressaare vs Vaprus?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Kuressaare vs Vaprus?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Kuressaare and 1.3 for Vaprus — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Kuressaare vs Vaprus?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Kuressaare or draw is 63%.