Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II
Model pick: Lübeck (34%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.85 – 0.8
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lübeck | Hamburger SV II |
|---|
| League position | #16 (2 pts) | #17 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
*Lübeck shown at home, Hamburger SV II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lübeck — last 5
DDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Hamburger SV II — last 5
LLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lübeck (home) | Hamburger SV II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 75% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 65%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.85 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Lübeck or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Hamburger SV II or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 49% / 51% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Lübeck clean sheet | 45% |
| Hamburger SV II clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lübeck is the model's most likely outcome at
34%. Lübeck are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II — FAQ
Who will win Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II?
Our statistical model makes Lübeck the most likely result at 34%. Full probabilities: Lübeck 34%, draw 34%, Hamburger SV II 32%.
Will both teams score in Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II?
Expected goals are 0.85 for Lübeck and 0.8 for Hamburger SV II — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (19%). Double chance for Lübeck or draw is 69%.