Śląsk Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Śląsk Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa
Model pick: Raków Częstochowa (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Śląsk Wrocław | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #2 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Śląsk Wrocław shown at home, Raków Częstochowa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Śląsk Wrocław — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
LLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Śląsk Wrocław (home) | Raków Częstochowa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-2-0 in 3 (0.7 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% |
| Top scorer | – | Jonatan Brunes (15) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Śląsk Wrocław or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Śląsk Wrocław clean sheet | 27% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Raków Częstochowa is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Raków Częstochowa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Śląsk Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa — FAQ
Who will win Śląsk Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model makes Raków Częstochowa the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Śląsk Wrocław 30%, draw 29%, Raków Częstochowa 41%.
Will both teams score in Śląsk Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Śląsk Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Śląsk Wrocław and 1.31 for Raków Częstochowa — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Śląsk Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Śląsk Wrocław or draw is 57%.