La Almunia vs Huesca II Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
La Almunia vs Huesca II
Model pick: Huesca II (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| La Almunia | Huesca II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*La Almunia shown at home, Huesca II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
La Almunia — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 18% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Huesca II — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | La Almunia (home) | Huesca II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 18% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 49% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — La Almunia or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Huesca II or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| La Almunia clean sheet | 26% |
| Huesca II clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Huesca II is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Huesca II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ La Almunia vs Huesca II — FAQ
Who will win La Almunia vs Huesca II?
Our statistical model makes Huesca II the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: La Almunia 32%, draw 28%, Huesca II 40%.
Will both teams score in La Almunia vs Huesca II?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in La Almunia vs Huesca II?
Expected goals are 1.15 for La Almunia and 1.33 for Huesca II — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in La Almunia vs Huesca II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for La Almunia or draw is 59%.