La Calzada vs Calahorra Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
La Calzada vs Calahorra
Model pick: Calahorra (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.66
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| La Calzada | Calahorra |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 2.8 / 1.4 |
*La Calzada shown at home, Calahorra shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
La Calzada — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Calahorra — last 5
WWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | La Calzada (home) | Calahorra (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — La Calzada or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Calahorra or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| La Calzada clean sheet | 19% |
| Calahorra clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Calahorra is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Calahorra edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ La Calzada vs Calahorra — FAQ
Who will win La Calzada vs Calahorra?
Our statistical model makes Calahorra the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: La Calzada 28%, draw 26%, Calahorra 46%.
Will both teams score in La Calzada vs Calahorra?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in La Calzada vs Calahorra?
Expected goals are 1.17 for La Calzada and 1.66 for Calahorra — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in La Calzada vs Calahorra?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for La Calzada or draw is 51%.