La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 21:20 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto
Model pick: La Equidad (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| La Equidad | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|
| League position | #8 (28 pts) | #7 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*La Equidad shown at home, Deportivo Pasto shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
La Equidad — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Pasto — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | La Equidad (home) | Deportivo Pasto (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 37% |
| Top scorer | Fabricio Sanguinetti (6) | Andrey Estupinan Quinones (13) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — La Equidad or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pasto or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| La Equidad clean sheet | 37% |
| Deportivo Pasto clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
La Equidad is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. La Equidad are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto — FAQ
Who will win La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our statistical model makes La Equidad the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: La Equidad 37%, draw 30%, Deportivo Pasto 33%.
Will both teams score in La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto?
Expected goals are 1.1 for La Equidad and 1.0 for Deportivo Pasto — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for La Equidad or draw is 68%.