Laagri vs FCI Levadia Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Laagri vs FCI Levadia
Model pick: FCI Levadia (69%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.85 – 2.35
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Laagri | FCI Levadia |
|---|
| League position | #8 (25 pts) | #1 (50 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.5 | 2.5 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 82% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.6 / 1.2 | 2.8 / 1.0 |
*Laagri shown at home, FCI Levadia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Laagri — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 18% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
FCI Levadia — last 5
WWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 45% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Laagri (home) | FCI Levadia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-5 in 11 (1.9 / 1.5 goals per game) | 9-2-0 in 11 (2.5 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 18% | 45% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.85 vs 2.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (11%) |
| Double chance — Laagri or draw (1X) | 29% |
| Double chance — FCI Levadia or draw (X2) | 88% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Laagri clean sheet | 10% |
| FCI Levadia clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FCI Levadia is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Despite playing away, FCI Levadia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Laagri vs FCI Levadia — FAQ
Who will win Laagri vs FCI Levadia?
Our statistical model makes FCI Levadia the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Laagri 12%, draw 19%, FCI Levadia 69%.
Will both teams score in Laagri vs FCI Levadia?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Laagri vs FCI Levadia?
Expected goals are 0.85 for Laagri and 2.35 for FCI Levadia — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Laagri vs FCI Levadia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (11%). Double chance for Laagri or draw is 29%.