Lagun Onak vs Leioa Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Lagun Onak vs Leioa
Model pick: Lagun Onak (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lagun Onak | Leioa |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 3.4 |
*Lagun Onak shown at home, Leioa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lagun Onak — last 5
DWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Leioa — last 5
WLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lagun Onak (home) | Leioa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 46% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Lagun Onak or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Leioa or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Lagun Onak clean sheet | 33% |
| Leioa clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lagun Onak is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Lagun Onak are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Lagun Onak vs Leioa — FAQ
Who will win Lagun Onak vs Leioa?
Our statistical model makes Lagun Onak the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Lagun Onak 40%, draw 28%, Leioa 32%.
Will both teams score in Lagun Onak vs Leioa?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lagun Onak vs Leioa?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Lagun Onak and 1.1 for Leioa — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lagun Onak vs Leioa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Lagun Onak or draw is 68%.