Lahden Reipas vs PEPO Prediction & Preview
Kakkonen (Finland) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
KAKKONEN (FINLAND)
Lahden Reipas vs PEPO
Model pick: Lahden Reipas (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.38
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lahden Reipas | PEPO |
|---|
| League position | #6 (23 pts) | #2 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.4 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Lahden Reipas shown at home, PEPO shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lahden Reipas — last 5
DLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
PEPO — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lahden Reipas (home) | PEPO (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-0 in 8 (2.5 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
Kakkonen (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.01
Home wins: 59%
Draws: 16%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 70%
BTTS: 65%
Use these Kakkonen (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.58 vs 1.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Lahden Reipas or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — PEPO or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Lahden Reipas clean sheet | 25% |
| PEPO clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lahden Reipas is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Lahden Reipas are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lahden Reipas vs PEPO — FAQ
Who will win Lahden Reipas vs PEPO?
Our statistical model makes Lahden Reipas the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Lahden Reipas 41%, draw 26%, PEPO 34%.
Will both teams score in Lahden Reipas vs PEPO?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lahden Reipas vs PEPO?
Expected goals are 1.58 for Lahden Reipas and 1.38 for PEPO — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lahden Reipas vs PEPO?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Lahden Reipas or draw is 67%.