Lanús vs San Lorenzo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Argentina) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (ARGENTINA)
Lanús vs San Lorenzo
Model pick: Lanús (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 0.81
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lanús | San Lorenzo |
|---|
| League position | #6 (24 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Lanús shown at home, San Lorenzo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lanús — last 5
LDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
San Lorenzo — last 5
WDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 29% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lanús (home) | San Lorenzo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-1 in 8 (1.1 / 0.6 goals per game) | 2-5-1 in 8 (0.5 / 0.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 29% |
| Top scorer | – | Rodrigo Auzmendi (4) |
Primera Division (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Primera Division (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Lanús or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — San Lorenzo or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Lanús clean sheet | 44% |
| San Lorenzo clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lanús is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Lanús are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lanús vs San Lorenzo — FAQ
Who will win Lanús vs San Lorenzo?
Our statistical model makes Lanús the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Lanús 38%, draw 33%, San Lorenzo 29%.
Will both teams score in Lanús vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lanús vs San Lorenzo?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Lanús and 0.81 for San Lorenzo — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lanús vs San Lorenzo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (16%). Double chance for Lanús or draw is 71%.