Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston
Model pick: Charleston (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.5
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Las Vegas Lights | Charleston |
|---|
| League position | #8 (29 pts) | #3 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 2.6 / 1.0 |
*Las Vegas Lights shown at home, Charleston shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Las Vegas Lights — last 5
DDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Charleston — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Las Vegas Lights (home) | Charleston (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-2 in 10 (1.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 3-1-7 in 11 (1.1 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.24 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Las Vegas Lights or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Charleston or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Las Vegas Lights clean sheet | 22% |
| Charleston clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Charleston is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Charleston edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston — FAQ
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston?
Our statistical model makes Charleston the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Las Vegas Lights 30%, draw 26%, Charleston 44%.
Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston?
Expected goals are 1.24 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.5 for Charleston — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Las Vegas Lights or draw is 57%.